Hurricane Season Begins***UPDATE***

Early today, Dr William Gray and the CSU hurricane forecasting team updated their seasonal outlook and increased the number of storms they expect to form over the Atlantic Basin during the 2010 hurricane season. Their early outlook was for 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes. Here is their most recent forecast...18 named storms and 10 hurricanes. The forecast was based on much warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic and cooling tropical Pacific likely to transition into a weak La Nina by mid-season.

The following is my previous blog from the start of the 2010 season.

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With the massive oil disaster ongoing in the Gulf it is easy to forget that the upcoming hurricane season is upon us. June 1 through November 30 is the part of the year along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico when we need to keep at least one eye on any tropical weather issues.

Already this year, a tropical storm that formed over the Eastern Pacific made landfall on Guatemala's West Coast and caused considerable damage and loss of life. Right now, there is an area of thunderstorms east of the Yucatan peninsula that is being watched for possible development, though upper level winds will likely keep that from happening.

So as the season begins the folks who make their living making long range hurricane season forecasts have come up with some very worrisome numbers.

Here are some of the forecasts:

Dr Gray and his team from Colorado State University: 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes
NOAA: 14-23 named storms with 8-14 hurricanes.
ACCU-Weather: 15 named storms with 5 hurricanes.

Over the last 60 years the average number of named storms is around 11 with 6 becoming hurricanes.

The reason for the forecast of an above average season, is the weakening of the El Nino in the Pacific and warm Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico water temps. There are other factors but they all point to a season of higher storm frequency.

Even if you don't live right on the coast, a hurricane can certainly cause problems well inland...see Hurricane Hugo 1989 or Opal 1995. That's why we all should put together a ready kit in preparation of the season.

Here is a list of things to consider:

1. Important papers especially insurance contacts and special photos including ID and items that will be difficult to replace like titles or deeds to property.

2. Take video or photos of your property

3. Make plans for your pets

4. Keep a ready bag of clothes for each person in the household.

5. Stock your hurricane preparedness kit: cash (ATM may not have power), batteries, flash lights, battery operated radio/television, bottled water, toilet paper, non-perishable foods, canned goods, can opener, a cooler, candles, prescription medicines ; also diapers, baby wipes, formula, baby food if you have young ones.

Coastal residents I strongly urge you to look into purchasing flood insurance. Do it now because it will likely not be available to acquire if there is an active storm. This is called the "blackout" period when insurance will not be sold.

Be prepared..then enjoy the summer and hope(like 5 out of the last 6 years) the long range forecasts are wrong.

Justin